Over the weekend, opposition forces in Syria ousted President Bashar al-Assad from power.
Led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), opposition forces swept through Syria in recent weeks and captured Damascus on Dec. 8. Meanwhile al-Assad fled to Moscow for political asylum.
While the move has seemingly put an end to the Syrian civil war that has ravaged the Middle Eastern state since the Arab Spring in 2011 and displaced millions of Syrians, questions linger on what will happen in Syria.
“It will be very difficult for any regime to unite the country,” said Daniel Byman, professor in the School of Foreign Service and the director of the Security Studies Program. “There are different fighting groups with distinct power bases, and Syria faces numerous economic challenges. It is quite possible that the country will be balkanized in the near term at least.”
To learn more about what comes next in Syria, read Byman’s takes on the challenges a new Syrian government will face and how the change in leadership will affect international affairs in the region.
Ask a Professor: Daniel Byman on Syria’s New Regime and Middle East Foreign Policy
The Syrian civil war seemed to be at a stalemate for years. How were opposition forces able to topple al-Assad’s government so swiftly in the last few weeks?
Opposition forces, especially the leading group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), invested considerable effort into training and military innovation. Their fighters became much more skilled, and they developed capabilities such as night attacks and effective drone operations that greatly improved their capabilities.
The regime forces, meanwhile, stagnated. They became mired in corruption and did not invest in training.
At the same time, key props of the regime — Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Russia — all faced major problems of their own. Iran and Hezbollah were involved in conflicts with Israel, which in Hezbollah’s case devastated their forces. Russia, of course, has devoted its military efforts to Ukraine in recent years and has little spare capacity for Syria.
How will U.S. foreign policy toward Syria and the region shift with al-Assad out of power under the Trump administration in 2025?
This is unclear. Trump has signaled that he opposes any U.S. role in Syria and in general seeks to avoid U.S. commitments to the Middle East. However, his past policies in the region varied widely, and the uncertainty level is high.
Some of the Syrian opposition factions are U.S.-designated terrorist organizations. How will the change in power affect counterterrorism efforts in the region?
HTS is a designated group and will likely become the government of Syria. HTS leaders, however, have stated they oppose terrorism and have suppressed groups like the Islamic State in their territory in the past. How they behave in power, however, is a question mark. The Islamic State may gain more freedom of action due to the chaos in Syria, and the U.S. is already stepping up military operations against the group.
What are the main challenges Syria’s new government must first tackle?
Syria faces many grave challenges. One is national unity. Because the country may be balkanized, a new civil war could develop, with different armed groups turning their guns on each other. Another is preventing revenge killings against communities that supported Assad. Caring for returning refugees is vital — millions fled from Assad’s repression and may now return. And the economy needs rebuilding after over a decade of civil war. Much of the country’s infrastructure is destroyed, and much of a generation missed out on schooling and other essentials. In addition, neighboring states like Turkey and Israel are likely to intervene, at least along their borders.
How does the fall of al-Assad’s government affect the balance of power in the region? Who are the winners and losers in the civil war?
As noted below, Iran is a loser in this civil war. Israel’s position is unclear: Assad was an enemy, but an HTS-led government is hardly likely to be a friend. Turkey is likely to gain more influence in Syria and may increase the territory it controls, either directly with its own forces or indirectly via proxies.
Russia and Iran were al-Assad’s staunchest supporters. How will the new status quo in Syria affect their foreign policies?
The collapse of the regime is a huge blow to Russia and particularly Iran. Both invested considerable resources in keeping the Assad regime afloat. Iran in particular depends heavily on Syria to protect its interests in the Middle East. Syria is also important in helping support Iran’s ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah.
How will the new status quo in Syria affect the fates of hostages held in Syria, like Austin Tice (SFS’02, L’13)?
Tice was believed to be held by the regime or regime-affiliated forces. I desperately hope that the fall of the regime means that he will be found and freed.
